The $5.5bn question for Fifa & football

World Cup bad: Aggressive entry of prediction markets. World Cup good: Joy of watching African teams

Can you predict where Taylor Swift’s wedding will take place? Can you predict when Strait of Hormuz will reopen? These – alongside the outcome of World Cup matches – were some of the markets available on prediction market Kalshi recently.

Prediction markets are everywhere at the World Cup. Mexican goalkeeper, Guillermo Ochoa, and American legend, Clint Dempsey, promote Kalshi with the slogan ‘Trade the beautiful game’ on giant billboards in the vicinity of Times Square, where, in the subway, Polymarket, another major prediction market platform, urges sports lovers and passersby to gamble.

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