Turbulent Times

Climate change will make rough flights more common. Airlines and passengers must put safety first

Flying is one of the safest ways to travel. Yet many people are afraid of it. That is understandable. We are used to walking on the ground and swimming in water. But thousands of feet above the ground, we are inside a machine that depends on technology and the weather. So when a plane suddenly hits rough air, as an Air India flight from Phuket to Delhi did last week, it can frighten passengers. It can also scare people who are planning to fly for the first time.

Sadly, such incidents may become more common because of climate change. A 2024 study found that planes face moderate to very severe turbulence about 68,000 times a year. That may sound like a small number compared with all the flights in the world, but it is still a lot of rough-air encounters. And the problem could get worse as the planet warms. Researchers in the UK have found a big rise since the 1970s in weather conditions that can cause severe turbulence over the North Atlantic.

Should we stop flying? No. Modern planes are built to handle even very rough conditions. The bigger problem is often what passengers do. Many injuries caused by turbulence could be avoided if people kept their seat belts fastened when they were told to do so. Keeping your seat belt on is the simplest and best way to protect yourself during a flight.

Technology can help too, but it has limits. About 75% of turbulence can be predicted up to 18 hours ahead, giving pilots a chance to avoid it. But “clear-air turbulence”, which hit the Air India flight last week, is much harder to detect because there are no visible clouds or other obvious warning signs. Scientists are even studying whether birds could help warn planes about dangerous air. But such ideas are still far from being used in everyday flying.

This makes pilots and airlines very important. Pilots need good training, enough experience and proper rest. If they have to fly in difficult weather while tired, the risk for everyone increases. Unlike climate change and turbulence, this is something airlines can control.

Airlines should therefore make safety their top priority. That means giving pilots good working conditions and training, and making sure passengers understand why they should keep their seat belts fastened. We cannot control the weather, but we can control how well we prepare for it.

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