How firm does peace stand now?

An agreement reaches a standstill and a stasis until the perspective of the Pacta Sant Servanda is heartily adapted by both the “Hostiles” in a conflict or an Armageddon. Also, as an attendant fact, the post Operation Epic Fury feat accomplished by the dark nation and the Great Satan, appears fragile and temporal in nature as the Lebanon quandary persists in the form of the IDF incursions and the countervailing measures adopted by the Hezbollah. All these developments belittle the Diplomatic strivings at the West Asian table of negotiations. Still, the fragile peace interlude facilitates the peacenik instrumentalities in the region as it provides a crucial window of 60 days to the negotiating sides to eke out a permanent and a non temporal lull in the warring storm. The MOU reached between the United States of America and the Regime in Tehran might not be able to completely assure peace and stability in the always on the boil West Asian region. The manner in which the US led Operation Epic Fury shaped out poses a great plethora of questions for the aura of invincibility and invulnerability for the Superpower status and the most powerful perch for the sole surviving superpower of the Global comity of nations. The MOU is not a treaty but it’s a kind of contract and an agreement which does not get codified in the international customary law’s pantheon. The agreement reached between the White House and the Khamenei Regime might not ascertain peace and there might be a relapse into a conflict in the near future depending to a great deal upon how far the IDF in Israel carries on its incursions in Lebanon and to what extent the losses are incurred by the Phoenix like Hezbollah.

Let’s look at the takeaways for the Americans in the agreement. Firstly, President Donald Trump has acquired a guarantee and a kind of war reparation that Iran will never ever in the future enrich its mined Uranium to the weaponized percentage of 90% which is the limit for the weaponization of Iranian nuclear energy. Thus, in a manner the MOU can be also termed as the JCPOA ( Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) part deux where in the various Iranian nuclear facilities such as the notorious nomenclature of Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan and Bushehr to the monitoring regime of IAEA ( International Atomic Energy Association) which did provide compliance and verification services to the JCPOA mechanism.

Second, the MOU might be facile as Iran will not withdraw its hands from its non-state terror actors of the order of Hamas housed in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and the Hezbollah in Lebanon thus adding to the sustenance of the Iranian proxies in the region which means that another war objective as mentioned in the documents of the US State Departments amounting to the cessation of terrorism will not be met in the near and far future. Tehran follows an irreversible pathway to support Global terror which means that the Israeli security apparatus will have to contend with the same threats and scourge of Iran infested terror and insurgency in the foreseeable future. Also, as an attendant fact, the agreement is not a ceasefire or an armistice where in the concern s are localised.

The key American war objective of regime change did not materialize in the larger context of the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and the 2023 obliteration of Qassem Suleimani and Iranian nuclear scientists. The Regime could not be changed and it stood firm with arrogance and resilience despite the avalanche of attacks on the Tehran’s soul and heart along with causing a hefty amount of collateral damage in the entire nation state of Iran. Thus, the heavy cost of Operation Epic fury was telling on the Pentagon and the US Cent Com as the Tehran regime was not destroyed. But, it too can be confidently stated that the Iranian nation has been weakened and harmed beyond repair and it will take more than the 300 billion dollars of a reconstruction and rehabilitation fund to rebuild the runs of Tehran, which is also a conditionality of the yet to be inked agreement which might be inked soon and is currently in the form of a mere “ war halting framework” towards an adequately recorded and codified treaty. Thus, the Americans, too, had to accede to the demand of Iran to compensate for the war losses incurred by the receptacle nation.

The other high point of the fragile agreement is that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened by the Iranians and already the Americans have lifted their naval blockade over the besieged Straits of Hormuz which carries 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supplies and thus serves as a vital energy and shipping chokepoint of the globe similar to the Strait of Malacca and Babel Mandeb. At least on paper and ideationally, the fragile framework of a treaty reached between both the warring nations follows the principles of Common heritage of mankind dictum along with the idiom of Open Covenants openly arrived along finally culminating in the larger understanding of the Freedom of seas and navigation as enshrined in the iconic UNCLOS ( United Nations Convention of Law of Seas). The other takeaway from the agreement is that it provides both the antagonists with a 60 day window of peace opportunity to sew together a treaty which will be enforceable and answerable in the corridors of the United Nations Security Council. All in all, the agreement is definitely a temporary cessation of hostilities where in the global comity of nations can take a sigh of relief after the overwhelming energy crisis and threat to human lives and infrastructure loomed large over the larger mankind. Unless the treaty mechanism through the operability of the Geneva Convention of the Law of Treaties is not activated and involved the war might become a fait accompli or an intermittent spectacular star war as it has turned out to be, till the present times.

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