Iran’s future

The country can become West Asia’s leader if it has moderates at the helm. Trump can help

As Iran stages a massive funeral for its late supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, the question for geopolitical experts is what happens next. Khamenei’s successor, his son Mojtaba, hasn’t been seen in public since he too was injured in a US-Israeli bombing during the war. In the interim, reports indicate that IRGC is now firmly in command. This puts Iran on an even more hardline path, with IRGC buoyed by its ability to withstand the months-long US-Israeli assault.

This hardline approach is further exemplified by Iran’s rigid position in negotiations with US. IRGC viewed the war as an existential crisis for itself and the Iranian theocratic system. That’s why it was willing to continue the war for as long as necessary, even if it meant great damage and destruction to civilian infra and population.

Second, within the theocratic set-up, which is indeed brutal and remorselessly cracks down on protesters and ethnic and religious minorities, Khamenei was a moderator for the different factions – hardliners, reformists, moderates, IRGC and clergy. With him gone, IRGC has had the opportunity to assert itself ahead of other groups.

But the ideal situation for Iran would be if reformists like current President Pezeshkian are allowed to fully steer the country’s policies, including international relations. Iran has tremendous potential and amazing human resources. If Iran opens up and functions as a normal country, it will certainly emerge as a leader in West Asia. But three players don’t want that – IRGC for its own relevance, Israel because it needs an enemy, and Saudi Arabia, which is threatened by a prosperous, successful Iran. But the people of Iran, especially women and youth, want a system that helps them realise their full potential. That’s why they periodically protest against the regime.

Trump, who is not bogged down by historical baggage, should reach out to Iran’s reformist and moderate politicians, effect a grand bargain, and help Iran become a normal country. This will also cement his legacy.

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