The West Asian war and India

The escalating conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran has placed West Asia at the centre of global geopolitics. For India, however, the war is not a distant strategic contest but a development with immediate economic, diplomatic, and security implications. As a country deeply linked to the region through energy, trade, and diaspora ties, India faces a complex balancing act in responding to the crisis.

There are about ten million Indians in West Asia and India receives about $135 billion in remittances from them. About 48–52% of India’s crude oil imports come from West Asian countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait. India imported about $50–51 billion worth of crude oil from West Asia in 2025. Most of this oil (about 40% of imports) travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is also important for Inda. Iran sits at the intersection of three major regions: West Asia, Central Asia and South Asia. Iran connects multiple continental trade routes: Europe-China land rote, International North–South Transport Corridor, India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, and routes connecting Central Asia to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Iran lies inside what geo-strategists call the “energy ellipse”, a region holding a massive share of global oil and gas reserves.

The war places India’s energy security at grave risk. Any sustained disruption at the Strait of Hormuz would further push up global oil prices. Fortunately, India continues to buy Russian oil, which is helping us in this crisis. This underscores the value of diversification and trusted partners.

Beside oil, trade and supply chains are also at risk. India maintains commercial ties with both Iran and Israel, exporting agricultural products such as rice and tea to Iran and trading technology and defence-related goods with Israel. A prolonged conflict could disrupt shipping routes, increase maritime insurance costs, and complicate payment mechanisms already strained by sanctions.

In addition, the wider regional economy matters enormously to India. If the war destabilises Gulf economies or disrupts infrastructure, the ripple effects could extend into Indian households and state economies dependent on remittance flows. The war has come to the Indian Ocean, which is a cause for concern.

Diplomatically, India faces a delicate strategic triangle. Its relations with Israel have grown dramatically over the past three decades, especially in defence technology and intelligence cooperation. At the same time, India has historically maintained pragmatic ties with Iran, particularly through connectivity projects such as the Chabahar port, which offers India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Meanwhile, the United States has become India’s an important strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific.

This three-way relationship limits India’s diplomatic manoeuvrability. Openly siding with one party risks damaging ties with another. Consequently, New Delhi’s official stance has emphasised restraint, dialogue, and de-escalation, a posture reflecting strategic autonomy and pragmatism rather than indecision. PM Modi has often stated that India is not neutral, but it is on the side of peace.

The conflict also exposes India’s geopolitical constraints. Despite its rising economic and military profile, India remains heavily dependent on external energy sources and global maritime routes it does not fully control. A prolonged war could force New Delhi to rely on alternative suppliers, including increased purchases from countries like Russia, while managing diplomatic sensitivities with Western partners.

The crisis offers a strategic lesson. India’s long-term resilience will depend on reducing vulnerability to external shocks, through diversification of energy sources, expansion of domestic petroleum reserves (also maintaining sufficient strategic reserves), and accelerated transition toward renewable energy.

In essence, the war in West Asia is a reminder that India’s rise cannot be insulated from global turbulence. The country’s economic ambitions are closely tied to stability in distant regions, particularly those that supply its energy and host its diaspora. Navigating such crises will require not only careful diplomacy but also the support of people that strengthens India’s strategic autonomy.

India’s current policy of remaining cautious and staying away from the war is pragmatic. While it has shown concern over attacks in the Arab World, it condoled the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and is holding talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister. It is urging de-escalation, protecting its economic interests and more importantly protecting the Indian population in the region. With rhetoric becoming shriller, the possibility of war continuing for months appears distinct. Often statements are made on India, which are not in good tastes. Diplomacy demands silence on such occasions.

Though the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran is primarily a risk for India, geopolitics often creates opportunities alongside crises. The deeper context is the gradual emergence of a multipolar world, in which economic and political power is distributed across several major centres rather than dominated by one. This will help India playing a major role in reshaping the international structure.

For India, several strategic, economic, and diplomatic openings could emerge if the situation is managed carefully. India maintains working relations with Israel, Iran, the US, and Arab Gulf states simultaneously, something very few countries can do. This provides an opportunity to strengthen India’s role as a neutral diplomatic bridge. This will enhance India’s reputation as a responsible global power and strengthens its leadership role in the Global South.

With India having a large market, growing manufacturing sector, stable political system, and strategic autonomy in external relations, countries in West Asia and Europe may like to deepen economic ties with India as a stable investment destination. In addition, in the post-war period, immense opportunities would arise for labour-intensive projects for India.

Instability in traditional maritime routes could increase the importance of alternative logistics networks such as the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor, the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor and the International North–South Transport Corridor. These could reduce shipping time between India and Europe significantly compared with the Suez Canal route. India could become a central logistics hub in Eurasian trade.

Besides, it can further boost Atma-nirbharta (the “Make in India” initiative). India must develop further its indigenous manufacturing of defence equipment as their demand is going to increase enormously. Greater attention is needed to develop advanced technology within the country.

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