The Game Of Gulf

Rich Arab nations must actively lobby to end Iran war. Their economies depend on them being oases of safety

Iran continues hitting targets across America’s West Asian allies. On Monday, a Saudi refinery was burning, and explosions were heard across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, etc. While these strikes are insignificant compared with Iran’s own losses – at least 550 killed already – tallying bomb craters and bodies misses the larger point. Which is that, Gulf monarchies like UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi have far more to lose in this war than Iran. Minus Iran, West Asia is a roughly $4.5tn GDP territory, and images of, say, Dubai’s Fairmont Palm Hotel burning after a missile strike can dent it deeply.

Things were different during 1990’s Gulf War. West Asia practically lived off oil and gas then. The world needed both, so when war ended, things went back to the old normal. But West Asia today is a different kind of economic powerhouse. Almost 77% of UAE’s economy is based on non-oil sectors. It’s 73% for Oman, 66% for Qatar, and even Saudi is at 57%. In last year’s Global Financial Centres Index, Dubai was 12th, ahead of Washington DC, Dublin, Geneva and Paris. To get here, all of these countries have pursued growth in areas like finance, real estate and tourism, while projecting an image of safety and stability. 

But the fact that Iran is flying drones and missiles at them – never mind that most or all of these are intercepted – is enough to spook investors, tourists and also immigrant workers. That’s why Gulf royals need to actively bat for cessation of hostilities. Omanis say US-Iran talks were progressing well, and Iran had agreed to many demands, so war was unnecessary in the first place. After Khamenei’s killing, a return to the table may be difficult, but it’s not impossible. India, which has its own long-term interest in the region for energy security, a 10mn-strong workforce and billions of dollars in remittances, should do its part, as it is trusted by both Gulf nations and Israel. 

Trump has said he can wrap up Op Epic Fury in four weeks. But West Asia cannot wait that long. It must seek peace on a war footing.

END OF ARTICLE