Takaichi’s Castle

Japan’s first female PM set for landslide poll win. This is good news for India and Quad  

She can play drums, manage with just two hours of sleep a day, and is a hit with Japanese youth. Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female PM, appears set to secure a landslide victory in the snap polls held yesterday. According to public broadcaster NHK, Takaichi’s LDP is poised to win anywhere between 274 and 328 seats in the lower house of Japan’s Diet, way more than the halfway mark of 233. And along with her coalition partner, Japan Innovation Party, she could easily command more than the 310 seats needed for a super-majority. That would give Takaichi the ability to not just pass bills rejected by Diet’s upper house but also potentially push through constitutional amendments. 

Takaichi’s hawkish position on national security and immigration, and promises to expand govt spending, appear to be driving her popularity and taking away votes from the far right and left. Her conservative positions also seem to have reduced political friction against her in Japan’s deeply patriarchal socio-political firmament, with approval ratings for her govt hovering above 70%. She also managed to hit it off with Trump, and both agree Japan should spend more on defence. 

For India, Takaichi’s firm posturing vis-à-vis China is helpful – she previously indicated that an attack on Taiwan may elicit a defence response from Japan. Plus, as a protégé of former premier Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is big on Quad and has assured New Delhi of continued cooperation within this framework for a free and open Indo-Pacific – code for rebalancing against China. True, Trump hasn’t shown much enthusiasm for Quad in this term. But with the India-US trade deal, the mood might change in Washington. And Takaichi’s new, strong political mandate means she can push this case with Modi for a Quad leaders’ summit. Fun fact: new research shows half of Japan’s ancient samurai were women. Takaichi seems to fit the bill. 

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