Rupee Value: Rupee under pressure: INR breaches 94-per-dollar mark for the first time; geopolitical tensions, foreign outflows weigh heavily

The rupee breached the 94-per-dollar mark for the first time ever on Monday but recovered sharply to close flat at 93.53 against the US dollar, instead of ending at a fresh record closing low, amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistent foreign fund outflows and volatile crude oil prices.At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 93.84, slipped past the 94 barrier for the first time in intraday trade, but later pared all losses to settle unchanged at 93.53.The rupee had already crossed the 93-mark against the greenback on Friday after plunging 64 paise to settle at 93.53.

Oil, dollar strength and equity crash hit rupee

Forex traders said the rupee came under heavy strain as investors turned risk-averse amid fears that the ongoing Middle East conflict could keep energy markets disrupted for longer.Spiralling global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a stronger US dollar and a sharp fall in domestic equities all contributed to the slide.“The rupee hit fresh all-time lows on Friday and breached the 94-mark for the first time amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Middle East and weak domestic markets. Surge in crude oil prices and FII outflows, too, weighed on the rupee,” Anuj Choudhary, research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said, as quoted bye news agency PTI.He added, “We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias as deteriorating global sentiments and geopolitical tensions may keep the rupee under pressure. However, time-to-time intervention by the Reserve Bank may support the rupee at lower levels.”According to Choudhary, the USD-INR spot is expected to trade in a range of Rs 93.60-94.40.

Rupee weakness deepens since war began

Monday’s fall extends a sharp losing streak that accelerated after the war in the Middle East erupted on February 28.The rupee had touched 93.98 during the day, beating its previous intraday low of 93.7350 hit on Friday, and then moved past the 94-per-dollar mark on the interbank order matching system after the local spot session ended at 3:30 pm.The agency said the rupee has now fallen about 3 per cent since the Iran war began, hurt by an over 50 per cent surge in oil prices and severe disruptions to gas supplies.That broader trend has raised concern because India, as Asia’s third-largest economy, remains highly sensitive to imported energy costs.

RBI seen offering mild support

As per Reuters, despite the pressure, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may have been active in limiting sharper losses.The rupee has held up better than some regional peers during the crisis because of frequent RBI interventions.While the rupee is down about 3 per cent since the war began, currencies such as the South Korean won and Thai baht have fallen 5 per cent and nearly 6 per cent, respectively.On Monday, traders told Reuters that the central bank’s presence in the market appeared mild, and was likely focused on the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market.

Dollar firms, Asian currencies under pressure

The global backdrop also remained unfavourable for emerging market currencies.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.14 per cent higher at 99.78.The dollar index rose about 0.3 per cent to 99.9, helped by safe-haven demand as hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East faded.The agency said Asian currencies were down between 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent on Monday.In a note cited by Reuters, ING described the current market environment as “a sell-everything mood” affecting equities, bonds and precious metals, adding, “This is an ideal environment for the dollar, especially against higher beta currencies.”

Domestic markets and outflows add to pressure

The rupee’s slide also tracked a sharp sell-off in Indian financial markets.The Sensex crashed 1,836.57 points, or 2.46 per cent, to 72,696.39, while the Nifty fell 484.30 points, or 2.10 per cent, to 22,630.20.Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 5,518.39 crore on a net basis on Friday, according to PTI.Foreign investors have pulled out more than $11 billion from Indian stocks and bonds in March, putting the month on track for the heaviest monthly outflows since October 2024.That steady exit of overseas capital has become a major drag on the rupee, especially as oil prices remain elevated.

Forex reserves decline adds to watchfulness

Separately, India’s external buffers also saw a decline.The country’s forex reserves fell by $7.052 billion to $709.759 billion in the week ended March 13, according to RBI data released on Friday.While reserves remain substantial, the drop will likely keep markets alert to how aggressively the central bank may need to step in if volatility intensifies.