Malayali vibes

With development, come contradictions, the Kerala kind. Thursday will see electors vote strategically

Come Thursday, Kerala votes. And they must choose, in the main, between incumbent, CPM-led LDF, and opposition bloc, Congress-led UDF. What are the differentiators between the two in the state that is, undoubtedly, India’s most remarkable development story? Consecutive govts in Kerala have ensured high minimum wages, road expansion, strong trade and labour unions, land reforms, as well as investment in clean water, sanitation, housing, access to food, public health, and education. Kerala has had a continuity in public development. So, what’s in the manifesto for the voter this time? What are the differentiators? Hard to tell. Because, both LDF and UDF have overlapping agendas with common priorities – welfare schemes (especially healthcare), improved MSP, increase in pensions, elder care outlay, infra projects. In 2021, CPM and Congress had exact vote shares, 25% each. So, this election winds down to – no one can tell quite what, which makes it a close call, with BJP playing Team B, ‘vote-cutter’, or spoilsport, depending on the analyst’s side of the aisle.

Kerala is, hands down, among the most politically aware, and hotheaded, electorates in the country, on par with Bengal when it comes to political violence – grisly murders of party workers, tit-for-tat attacks between, mostly, Left and RSS workers. Political violence endures despite high literacy and cosy Gulf remittances – which Trump’s war on Iran haven’t impacted yet. In fact, violence of every kind – caste to ideological to domestic – endures. This is remarkable, too, for a state that saw the earliest rebellions against caste, a matrilineal society, a far better women’s labourforce participation, relative to India’s average. Yet, the toxic male chauvinism of Malayali filmworld, as exposed by the Hema Committee report, reflects its society. That there is little political fallout for MLAs accused of sexual misconduct, speaks for itself.

What will also impact outcomes is the fact that in a rare instance, one out of five electors is an elderly. The usual stream of Gulf migrants who head home to vote is missing. But the most significant factor in 2026, is a perceived breakdown of the secular compact that existed between Kerala state and its sizeable minority populations – Muslims about 26%, and Christians about 19%. BJP’s Hindu consolidation is a runaway project, and minorities will be voting strategically – how to keep BJP out. But given minority blocs aren’t necessarily on the same page, it could augur well for incumbents, regardless deathbed predictions for LDF. The country watches, as Kerala heads into an election, as a state, and a political fraternity, full of contradictions, despite all its successes.

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