Deal, Baby, Deal

Most people alive today were born after 1990. By then, Iran and Israel were already enemies. But their fight didn’t affect the whole world—until now. A few weeks ago, the US and Israel attacked Iran’s top leadership. Iran hit back by blocking a very important sea route called the Strait of Hormuz. A lot of the world’s oil and gas passes through this narrow path.

Because of this, oil has become much more expensive. Gas is not only costly, but also harder to find. This affects everyone. Petrol costs more, cooking gas costs more, and factories become more expensive to run.

Even though Donald Trump has talked about peace, prices are still high. And if the fighting continues, things could get much worse. Big financial companies like BlackRock warn that if oil becomes too expensive, the whole world economy could slow down or even crash. That’s called a recession. Poor people would suffer the most, especially since many are still recovering from the recession caused by COVID-19 pandemic.

Why don’t wars stop quickly? Ending wars is very hard. Even when countries agree to stop fighting for a while, they often start again. That’s because both sides think, “If we keep fighting, we might get a better deal.” This overconfidence is called “victory disease.” The US has made this mistake before in Vietnam War, Iraq War, Afghanistan War.

What needs to happen now? Iran is strong and ready to keep fighting. It won’t agree to peace unless it feels that talking is better than fighting. So, the US needs to first ask Israel to stop attacking for a while. Then, start talks with Iran. But here’s the important part: you can’t force Iran to accept a deal that makes it look weak or embarrassed in front of its own people.

For peace to happen, both sides must give up something. Both sides must feel respected. If that doesn’t happen, the war could continue—and cause a big global economic problem that hurts everyone.

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