If The Gulf Burns…
…The world pays. Trump must make sure Israel and Iran stop targeting W Asia energy fields
Trump’s sharp reaction to Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field – and Tehran’s swift retaliation against Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub – captured a moment when world energy markets and supplies teetered close to disaster. Yesterday was, in some ways, the worst day of the war for the world. What was hit by Israel and Iran are not peripheral targets. Ras Laffan underpins roughly a fifth of global LNG supply. South Pars is the world’s largest gas field, jointly shared by Iran and Qatar. What we are witnessing, then, is not merely escalation – it is weaponisation of the global energy system. Markets have responded accordingly. Oil prices have surged close to $120 mark, reflecting not just supply anxiety, but a deeper fear: that Persian Gulf, the beating heart of global energy flows, is becoming an active battlefield.
That’s why Trump sought to distance Washington from the immediate trigger, insisting US was not informed of Israel’s strike, while simultaneously warning Iran against further retaliation. But, perhaps, beneath this tactical distancing lies a more fundamental divergence. Until now, Washington and Tel Aviv have operated in tandem against Iran – parallel campaigns aligned in execution if not entirely in intent. That alignment now appears strained. Trump is a businessman first, so his objective is transactional, and political: regime recalibration in Tehran, ideally one pliant to American interests. Israel’s aim is far more absolute – the dismantling of the regime itself. Where Trump seeks leverage, Israel seeks finality.
This divergence is beginning to surface in American domestic politics as well. Questions are being raised within Trump’s own base about whether US is being drawn into a war not entirely its own. At the same time, Israel appears fully committed, viewing the conflict as a historic opportunity to neutralise Iran decisively. For Tehran, the stakes are existential – prompting a willingness to escalate even at the cost of destabilising the very energy networks it relies on.
That is what makes this moment so perilous. Rational restraint is no longer guaranteed from either Israel or Iran. That leaves America, still the only actor with leverage over both escalation and de-escalation. If Washington continues to backstop Israeli operations unconditionally, the conflict risks spiralling into a full-spectrum energy war – one that could dwarf previous oil shocks. But if Trump chooses to create distance, to impose limits, and crucially, to articulate an exit strategy, there remains a narrow path out of this growing mess. Because if the Gulf burns, the world does not watch – it pays.
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Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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